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Thread: Predicting the Weather

  1. #1
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    Default Predicting the Weather

    I have been looking for some time for information on predicting the weather. I am not talking about going into full detail of weather charts, but more on the lines of looking at the moon and working out if it is going to be a nice day or not?

    Some of the examples I have mangeged to find include:
    • The red sky at night etc- seems to have some merit?!?
    • Sound travel, eg if I can hear a train at night from my home, the nearest railway is miles away! This is normally an indcation that the weather will become wet. The reason; sound travels better in moisture laden air.
    • A ring around the moon and it is getting smaller, the weather is going to change for the worse and the ring getting bigger the weather is going to get better.
    However there seems to be very little credible information on the web for weather prediction.

    Does anyone know of a good website or book for predicting local weather naturally? Or am I searching in vain
    Alec aka Wayne

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    Don't know a site, but I do know when the deer are active at night - it corresponds to a falling barometer.

    Find yourself a rough carpenter, or someone who works outside all the time - if they've done it for a while - they'll be able to give you good predictions.

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    The best way to predict the weather in my view is by cloud formations (if you don't have access to weatherfax ) There is a good book called The Yachtsmans Weather Guide which has some useful information in it.
    I find that I can tell when the atmospheric pressure is dropping rapidly (i.e. an intense area of low pressure approaching) by the fact that my sinuses beging to hurt like . I now believe my sinuses more than the weather forecasters, if you think about it 50% chance of rain means it might rain and then again it might not but it sounds more scientific.
    The best of the old rhymes for me is:
    "Mackerel skies and mares tails,
    make lofty ships carry low sails"
    as these cloud formations usually mean its going to blow.
    The most useless has to be:
    "When the sea hog jumps,
    Man the pumps"
    Dolphins and porpoises jump all the time. I guess it shows how leaky the old sailing ships were!

    Ian

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by GL12 View Post
    I have been looking for some time for information on predicting the weather. I am not talking about going into full detail of weather charts, but more on the lines of looking at the moon and working out if it is going to be a nice day or not?

    Some of the examples I have mangeged to find include:
    • The red sky at night etc- seems to have some merit?!?
    • Sound travel, eg if I can hear a train at night from my home, the nearest railway is miles away! This is normally an indcation that the weather will become wet. The reason; sound travels better in moisture laden air.
    • A ring around the moon and it is getting smaller, the weather is going to change for the worse and the ring getting bigger the weather is going to get better.
    However there seems to be very little credible information on the web for weather prediction.

    Does anyone know of a good website or book for predicting local weather naturally? Or am I searching in vain
    You want *credible* information on weather prediction? Even the billion dollar budgets can't do that

    There's actually a lot of very interesting information on natural weather prediction. The problem is that although some may be complete junk others are specific to particular circumstances and locations and, unless it is your local village wisewoman who you get the prediction from, you may have to dig deep to find out what basis the prediction is made on and if it is relevant.

    For instance the most famous of them all, at least over here, is the 'red sky at night' that everyone learns as a child. This relies on the prevailing weather coming from the south east, and if tomorrows weather comes from that direction its a pretty good indication. If you live in an area where the prevailing weather comes from somewhere else, or just blows differently that day, its completely useless.

    It is true though that the local animals seem to have an idea of what is happening, and if you observe their behaviour closely you may pick up patterns that predict quite well. I used to be able to predict the summer evenings quite well from whether the bats favoured us with the roosting (for me this meant a hot spell as the spot they used was on the North side and they went elsewhere in colder evenings) and secondly the time they started chittering and flying. This doesn't help anyone else very much of course ...
    Happy paddling ,
    Rob.


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    If it is Monday, there will be a 100% chance of Tuesday with a high probability of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long range forecasts predict Saturday and Sunday.

    I take the Bob Dylan approach to weather forecast.
    Lloyd

    Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug...


  6. #6
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    I've found I've developed a pretty useful short-term weather eye from just kinda keeping an eye on it. I'm lucky in that I have lots of sky to see, and I've lived here for ever.

    If you have lots of sky, you get to see the weather fronts rolling through, and can see the wind direction at different levels, which suggest what's coming - but longer term, not so good, it's true.

    There is a rubbish saying I've heard used quite a lot in South Devon, which is: If you can't see the 'moors its raining, and if you can, it's going to. ... suggesting that the prevalent weather is inclement hereabouts.

    Actually, now as I've posted it, I wonder if stuff like that may be useful to the locale you are in.

    There is some general stuff too tho' that seems to be mostly ok - the ole' "red sky at night" rhyme for one.

    Have a search for weather lore, that's thrown up quite a bit of stuff (quite a bit of nonsense too maybe ...).
    Last edited by monkey_pork; 24th-October-2006 at 06:43 PM. Reason: More stuff to say about it ...

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    In Britain, the forecast (by a big average) is
    "Tommorrow will be the same as today. The day after it will have changed"
    [even the weathermen agree on that one].

    Also there is alway a low pressure going though about new year [+/- one week] that brings some snow for the Scottish ski areas. In fact it (the low) is true of most weekends.

    Britain has weather not climate! Most other places only have climate.

    Enjoy the predictions.

    PS most of the TV weather forecasts now appear to be presented on the basis that a wet pavement(sidewalk) means it is raining! There is a vast gap between wet pavements and real rain!

    Philip

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    Weather can be predicted very reliably by observing Tenboat's attire.

    If he is wearing a dry suit, the sun will soon come out.

    If he is wearing Paramos it will it down very shortly.

    If the sun is shining and he goes off for a walk without a coat it will rain in one hours time, or at the furthest point from home or shelter.

    Wind can be forecast by the size of his sail being deployed. The big sail means high winds, gusting unpredictably. The small sail guarentees light winds, or non at all.

    Wind direction in these cases is completely dependent on how urgent it is to get form A to B, or on how committed to the route at the time.

    Sadly now that winter is spent below the snowline avalanche prediction is no longer possible.

    Cloud base and visibility seems to correlate strongly with possession, or lack of, a compass.

    Easy really.
    If it wasn't for the rain in our lives there would be no rivers. X 2

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    Default Rain before seven, clear by eleven

    It certainly worked today. An almighty thunderstorm in the night, and a magnificent sunny day for paddling on the River Thames near Marlow. That made up for three straight days of trying to paddle in the rain with kids....
    However, if you look at Weather Lore on Wikipedia you will see this is given as a false statement, scientifically:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_lore

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    I usually use http://www.metcheck.com

    or

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk

    Nowhere is going to be exactly correct, it's the future for goodness sake! But these sites make a good fist of it.

  11. #11
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    around here it is fairly easy:

    look outside - if you can not out it is raining. If you can see out its about to rain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gwing View Post
    For instance the most famous of them all, at least over here, is the 'red sky at night' that everyone learns as a child. This relies on the prevailing weather coming from the south east, and if tomorrows weather comes from that direction its a pretty good indication. If you live in an area where the prevailing weather comes from somewhere else, or just blows differently that day, its completely useless.
    does it not rely on weather coming from the west (or south west)? if the weather is coming from the east (where the sun rises) and you have a red sky in the morning - the traditional warning of bad weather - thats because there are clear skies to the East - and weather coming from that direction would therefore likely be good. In Britain our prevailing weather is from the south west however and thus the opposite is more likely to be true.

    Around here the most reliable forecast is reckoned to come from Theyr an icelandic subscription service - being able to read weather in the field using various elements of weather lore - while useful - is no substitute for a good forecast and an understanding of synoptic charts.

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    you need some magic seaweed... either the traditional sort or the new high tech version :



    http://magicseaweed.com/


    .
    Obscured by Clouds

    Clipper Prospector 16

    http://lostcoast.blogspot.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by Don Redondo View Post
    you need some magic seaweed... either the traditional sort or the new high tech version :
    http://magicseaweed.com/
    that is indeed a good site - esp good for swell height and period predictions as well as wind - used to use it surfing all the time. It'll even tell you how cold the sea is (as if your balls didnt do that anyway )

  15. #15
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    Default Weather

    Thanks for the replies, there is some good info and humour for me to work on.

    I have come to the conclusion having watched the weather for a while and trying to predict it, that you have to look for a cluster of signs, clouds being the most telling. Seem to be right about 60 to 70% of the time. Just doing it for a bit of fun and so I don't get quite as wet walking to the pub

    I will write up a list and post it for anyone that is interested, when I find the time...
    Alec aka Wayne

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    Default weather prediction

    Meteorology is a science based upon many calculations & computations that informs one what the weather should have been!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aquanaut View Post
    does it not rely on weather coming from the west (or south west)? if the weather is coming from the east (where the sun rises) and you have a red sky in the morning - the traditional warning of bad weather - thats because there are clear skies to the East - and weather coming from that direction would therefore likely be good. In Britain our prevailing weather is from the south west however and thus the opposite is more likely to be true.

    Around here the most reliable forecast is reckoned to come from Theyr an icelandic subscription service - being able to read weather in the field using various elements of weather lore - while useful - is no substitute for a good forecast and an understanding of synoptic charts.
    NOT that I know what I'm talking about here but I've read somewhere that the red is predominantly caused by moisture particles in the sky causing diffraction of the light. Therefore the red morning sky implies there is moisture, hence the prospect of rain and the moisture in the evening sky implies the rain has passed.

    Or maybe like any good prophesy you can argue it either way, and hence support the doggerel whichever way the wind generally blows from.
    Happy paddling ,
    Rob.


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    Quote Originally Posted by GL12 View Post
    I have been looking for some time for information on predicting the weather. . . . . . . . . .
    Google for weather folklore & you'll find masses of info.

    I use http://www.mwis.org.uk/ which seems quite good, though mountain biased

  19. #19

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    If you spend enough time outdoors you'll soon learn what the weather will be and usually without thinking about it. In the short term anyway. Long range forcasts require a paid meterorologist to screw it up.

    The "Red Sky at Night" thing is just what it is, folklore. It was probably true for some places that had predictable weather patterns but it doesn't work for everywhere.

    Watch the birds when you're camping and how high they fly when feeding. Low pressure cells will force the food lower and likely mean an unsettled day. If they are feeding higher the pressure is up and the day should be somewhat calm.

    Watch the smoke from your fire. If it hangs low in the air you're in for some unsettled weather. If it rises high then the day should be good.

    One thing to remember when canoeing, from my Canadian perspetive anyway, is that when paddling in wild areas the weather patterns can be very localized. I've seen rain on what should of been a sunny day and vice-versa.

    It's human nature to try and predict the future be it weather or your own. Unfortunatly we've never been all that good at it. But it sure is fun trying to none-the-less.

    My motto on the weather we deal with when paddling is .......

    My worst day canoeing is better than my best day at work.

    Paddle Safe

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    It seems to me that since the famous hurricane that "wasn't going to happen" in Britain years ago that the weather forecasters (particularly on th BBC) over report/forecast the weather, so that a couple of insignificant showers or a puff of breeze are presented as being a major factor to be considered.

    Watch the BBC weather forecast and some days when what they should say is "warm and sunny everywhere", or "it will rain" is expanded to fill a full five minutes.

    Follow Crowded House's advice and "Always take the weather with you" and be prepared for "Four Seasons in one day". (They are song titles).

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    Theres a couple of books on forecasting based on a reading of the sky by a guy called Alan Watts - the wind forecasting book looks good (link) although I havent seen it....

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    You need one of these .

    >> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Rock

    Put "Weather Rock" in Google Images for pictures .

    MickT
    It'll be right, trust me, I'm a Yorkshireman.



    ::>>> I'd rather be lucky, than good.

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    If you are interested in weather lore then i recomend reading this

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0...e=UTF8&seller=

    It goes through all the old weather lore sayings and from observations gives a % acuracy for them. Some of them will suprise you.
    I Started out with nothing! and i still have most of it left.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aquanaut View Post
    Theres a couple of books on forecasting based on a reading of the sky by a guy called Alan Watts - the wind forecasting book looks good (link) although I havent seen it....
    Is this the same Alan Watts that does/did a lot of interpretation work on comparative religions - especially stuff on making what were/are thought of as Eastern philispohical traditions (such as Zen), more comprehensible to the way that Western thinking approaches stuff like this.

    He was one for going off for a long walk, and has published loads of books, so it might well be him.

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